Marco Castelluccio

Welcome!

I am an Economist at the Bank of Italy in Rome, working at the Regional Economic Research Division. I am also a Research Associate at the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

I received my PhD in Economics from University College London in 2026.

You can find the latest version of my CV here.

Research Interests:
Applied Microeconomics, Energy and Environmental Economics, Law and Economics

Contact Information:
Marco.Castelluccio[at]bancaditalia.it
Bank of Italy, Via XX Settembre 97/E, 00187, Roma

Publications

"Mafia Infiltrations in Times of Crisis: Evidence from the Covid-19 Shock", with Lucia Rizzica
The Journal of Law and Economics, 2026, vol. 69, n.3
[Bank of Italy Working Paper 1502/25], [IFS Working Paper 23/28]
Media coverage: UCL Econ Brief, ItaliaOggi

Abstract: We analyze the risk of mafia capture of firms operating in the legal economy. To overcome possible endogeneity concerns we exploit the abrupt drop in revenues caused by the Covid-19 related closures imposed in Spring 2020 in Italy. We find that the induced sudden and significant worsening of affected firms’ financial conditions increased the likelihood of them being infiltrated by mafia-connected entrepreneurs: a 10% drop in revenues leads to a 4.9% increase in the probability of mafia entry. We further show that firms are more likely to resort to mafia lending when they face temporary difficulties in repaying their debts.

Presented at (* by coauthors)
Bank of Italy, UCL, Institute for Fiscal Studies, Bocconi University*, Essex PhD Conference, AL CAPONE, QMUL PhD Workshop, ENTER Jamboree (Manheim), 7th Workshop on the Economics of Organized Crime (Pavia), EEA-ESEM Congress (UPF)*

Working Papers

"Catalytic Divestment: The World's Largest Investor's Exit from Coal and Global Emissions", with Fenella Carpena and Jonas Hjort
Submitted

Abstract: We show that individual bellwether investors can trigger large capital market shifts and sharply reduce a socially harmful activity by publicly blacklisting implicated firms. In 2016, Norway’s massive Oil Fund announced that it had divested or begun monitoring coal-intensive companies in its broad, global portfolio. We estimate a roughly 18% relative decrease in targeted firms’ greenhouse gas emissions—comparable to that of the EU Emissions Trading System—alongside decreased coal activity, emissions intensity, market valuations, and satellite-measured air pollution around their facilities. The coal exit swayed other large and scrutinized investors to reallocate away from targeted firms.

Presented at (* by coauthors)
Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2025 NBER Climate Finance, Oslo Business School*, University of Oslo*, BSP Research Huddle*, NAERE*, NCDE*, NMBU*, Ghent University*, Bank of Italy

"Regulation's Hidden Benefits: Evidence from Waste Crime"
Draft coming soon

Work in Progress

"Market Power Through Risk Transfer: Contract Menu Design in the Italian Retail Electricity Market", with Mohamed Badaoui and Davide Zufacchi

"Digital Transformation in Healthcare: Public Procurement, Workforce Dynamics, and Hospital Performance", with Mattia Albanese and Valentina D'Anna

"The Effect of RES Expansion on the Wholesale Electricity Price", with Matteo Alpino and Francesco David