Marco Castelluccio

Welcome!

I am a PhD Candidate in Economics at University College London and a PhD Scholar at the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

I am an applied microeconomist working on firms, incentives, and institutions, with a particular focus on environmental economics and organized crime. My research studies how firms and organizations respond to economic incentives, regulatory environments, and institutional constraints, and how these responses affect social welfare.

I will join the Bank of Italy as a Research Economist in June 2026.

You can find the latest version of my CV here.

Publications

"Mafia Infiltrations in Times of Crisis: Evidence from the Covid-19 Shock", with Lucia Rizzica
The Journal of Law and Economics, 2026, vol. 69, n.3
[Bank of Italy Working Paper 1502/25], [IFS Working Paper 23/28]
Media coverage: UCL Econ Brief, ItaliaOggi

Abstract: We analyze the risk of mafia capture of firms operating in the legal economy. To overcome possible endogeneity concerns we exploit the abrupt drop in revenues caused by the Covid-19 related closures imposed in Spring 2020 in Italy. We find that the induced sudden and significant worsening of affected firms’ financial conditions increased the likelihood of them being infiltrated by mafia-connected entrepreneurs: a 10% drop in revenues leads to a 4.9% increase in the probability of mafia entry. We further show that firms are more likely to resort to mafia lending when they face temporary difficulties in repaying their debts.

Presented at: Bank of Italy, UCL, Institute for Fiscal Studies, Bocconi University*, Essex PhD Conference, AL CAPONE, QMUL PhD Workshop, ENTER Jamboree (Manheim), 7th Workshop on the Economics of Organized Crime (Pavia), EEA-ESEM Congress (UPF)*

Work in Progress

"The Social Costs of Waste Crime: Evidence from Italy"

"Catalytic Divestment: The World's Largest Investor's Exit from Coal and Global Emissions", with Fenella Carpena and Jonas Hjort

"Market Power Through Risk Transfer: Contract Menu Design in the Italian Retail Electricity Market", with Mohamed Badaoui and Davide Zufacchi